“Crime is up since the pandemic”

“Crime is down in NYC”

What does the data say?

Rates of shootings during the pandemic years

…but quickly fell to pre-pandemic levels.

Crime is a local phenomenon

Crime is an extremely local phenomenon

What do voters think?

Were shooting rates correlated with voter preferences?

Different geographical grains tell different stories…

Were shooting rates correlated with voter preferences?

Different geographical grains tell different stories…

In conclusion…

  • Shooting rates did spike during the pandemic in NYC and returned to pre-pandemic levels on aggregate
  • Shooting rate changes during the pandemic varied wildly within NYC, even from block to block
  • Difficult to say if or how violent crime rates influenced voter preferences in 2020

Thanks!